Japan can return to the men’s top 10 with a draw against Australia, while Fiji’s women can reach the highest ranking in their history with a victory over South Africa on August 15.
By The Rugby Fan Central Team
Two international rematches on August 15, 2026 carry significant World Rugby rankings implications, with Japan’s men chasing a return to the top 10 and Fiji’s women targeting a new national high.
Australia and Japan meet in Townsville just seven days after the Wallabies’ 35–32 victory in Osaka. Fiji and South Africa meet again in Lautoka after the Springbok Women won the opening test 55–12 in Suva.
QUICK ANSWER: Japan will return to the World Rugby men’s top 10 with a draw against Australia and can rise to ninth with a victory by more than 15 points. Fiji’s women will reach a record-high 12th with any victory over South Africa.
Australia vs Japan World Rugby Rankings Permutations
Japan dropped two places following its narrow 35–32 defeat to Australia in Osaka on August 8, falling to 12th in the World Rugby Men’s Rankings.
A week later, the Brave Blossoms have an immediate opportunity to climb back into the top 10.
According to World Rugby, a draw against Australia is enough to regain those two places.
A victory by more than 15 points would take Japan even higher, moving the Brave Blossoms above Fiji into ninth place.
At the other end of the permutations, even a heavy defeat will not knock Japan out of 12th place.
For the Wallabies, there is no opportunity to move higher than their current position of eighth. Australia can gain a maximum of 0.58 rating points with a victory, which is not enough to climb another place.
Japan has reason to believe it can challenge Australia again after pushing the Wallabies to the final moments in Osaka.
The Brave Blossoms trailed by only three points at the finish, with Warner Dearns’ late try giving Japan an opportunity to complete the comeback before Australia’s defense held.
Seven days later, Japan gets another chance — and this time a place back inside the world’s top 10 is within reach.
Fiji vs South Africa Women’s World Rugby Rankings Permutations
The women’s match in Lautoka carries an opportunity for Fiji to make rankings history.
A victory over South Africa would lift Fiji from 13th to a new national high of 12th in the World Rugby Women’s Rankings.
Fiji would move above Wales, sending the Welsh to their lowest position since the women’s rankings were introduced in February 2016.
The challenge is considerable.
South Africa defeated Fiji 55–12 in Suva on August 8, meaning Fiji will need a major turnaround just one week later to take advantage of the opportunity.
If Fiji loses, it will remain 13th, although its advantage over Spain could be reduced to only 0.08 rating points.
South Africa Can’t Climb — But It Can Fall
South Africa enters the match ranked 10th in the world and cannot improve its position with another victory over Fiji.
The Springbok Women can collect a maximum of only 0.26 rating points from a win.
There is, however, a downside if the result swings dramatically in Fiji’s favor.
South Africa will fall to 11th if Fiji wins by more than 15 points.
That creates two levels of opportunity for the hosts: any Fiji victory would produce a record-high ranking, while a victory by 16 points or more would also knock South Africa out of the top 10.
World Rugby Rankings Scenarios for August 15
| Match | Result | Rankings impact |
|---|---|---|
| Australia vs Japan | Australia wins | Australia cannot climb from No. 8 |
| Australia vs Japan | Draw | Japan returns to the top 10 |
| Australia vs Japan | Japan wins by 16+ | Japan climbs to No. 9 |
| Fiji vs South Africa | South Africa wins | South Africa remains No. 10 |
| Fiji vs South Africa | Fiji loses | Fiji remains No. 13 |
| Fiji vs South Africa | Fiji wins | Fiji reaches a record-high No. 12 |
| Fiji vs South Africa | Fiji wins by 16+ | South Africa falls to No. 11 |
How the World Rugby Rankings Are Calculated
World Rugby removed home weighting from its rankings calculations with effect from July 1, 2026.
The August 15 permutations therefore fall under the revised criteria.
Match Officials
Paul Williams of New Zealand will referee Australia against Japan.
Williams has previously taken charge of a test between the teams, overseeing Australia’s 32–23 victory in Oita in October 2021.
In Lautoka, Amber McLachlan of Australia will referee Fiji against South Africa for the first time.
There is an unusual piece of history attached to that appointment: neither Fiji nor South Africa has previously won with McLachlan in the middle.
What to Watch on August 15
The rankings add another layer to two matches already shaped by what happened one week earlier.
Japan came within three points of Australia and now has an opportunity to turn another competitive performance into a return to the world’s top 10.
Fiji faces a much steeper challenge after losing by 43 points in Suva, but the potential reward is historic: a first-ever rise to No. 12 in the women’s rankings.
For Australia and South Africa, meanwhile, winning offers little immediate upward movement.
That makes August 15 an unusual rankings weekend.
The favorites are trying to confirm last week’s victories. The teams they beat have the bigger rankings opportunities.
Ranking permutations are based on World Rugby’s official men’s and women’s rankings previews published on August 11, 2026.
Current rankings: View the official World Rugby Men’s and Women’s Rankings →
