The World Rugby Women’s Rankings could look significantly different by the end of this weekend, with South Africa and Fiji both capable of reaching record-high positions.
Two women’s internationals on September 4–5 carry potentially significant rankings consequences.
Japan hosts Fiji in Fukuoka on Friday, before South Africa faces New Zealand at FNB Stadium in Soweto on Saturday as part of Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry.
For South Africa, victory could produce one of the biggest rankings jumps in the history of the Springbok Women.
For Fiji, another win over Japan would take the Fijiana to their highest position yet.
And even without playing, Canada and Wales could both see their positions affected by results elsewhere.
South Africa Can Jump to a Record Seventh
The biggest potential movement comes in Soweto.
South Africa currently sits 10th in the World Rugby Women’s Rankings, but an upset victory over New Zealand would send the Springbok Women up three places to a record-high seventh.
The reward could be even greater.
If South Africa beats the Black Ferns by more than 15 points, World Rugby says the Springbok Women would gain another position and climb as high as sixth.
That would represent a remarkable rankings breakthrough for a South African program that has continued to close the gap on the leading nations in the women’s game.
But the consequences would extend beyond South Africa.
New Zealand’s No. 2 Ranking Is at Risk
New Zealand enters the weekend ranked second in the world, but the Black Ferns have considerably more to lose than gain from the match.
World Rugby says New Zealand cannot improve its rating with a victory because of the 19.14 rating-point differencebetween the two teams.
That reflects one of the basic principles of the rankings system: beating a substantially lower-ranked opponent does not necessarily produce additional rating points.
A South African victory, however, would have major consequences.
A first-ever Black Ferns defeat to South Africa would see New Zealand fall from second to third, allowing Canada to move into second place without playing.
England would remain at the top.
That means Saturday’s match could simultaneously produce a historic high for South Africa and another significant shift near the top of the global rankings.
Fiji Can Reach Its Highest Ranking Ever
There is another opportunity for rankings history one day earlier in Japan.
Fiji faces Japan in Fukuoka knowing that victory would lift the Fijiana to a record-high 12th place.
Fiji has steadily climbed the international ladder in recent seasons, and another victory over the Sakura Fifteen would establish a new high-water mark.
The result would also have consequences for Wales.
If Fiji climbs to 12th, Wales would fall to 13th — the lowest position in Welsh women’s rankings history.
It means Wales could lose a place without taking the field.
Japan Cannot Climb With a Victory
Japan has an unusual rankings situation of its own.
Even if the Sakura Fifteen beats Fiji, World Rugby says Japan cannot improve its current ranking position.
The maximum available gain from a Japanese victory is 0.62 rating points, which would still leave Japan short of overtaking 10th-ranked South Africa.
Japan therefore has more to protect than gain from the rankings perspective.
For Fiji, the downside is more substantial.
A defeat by more than 15 points would see the Fijiana fall one place to 14th, with Spain moving above them.
So Fiji enters Friday’s match with a potentially wide rankings range: victory could take the team to a record 12th, while a heavy defeat could send it down to 14th.
The Rankings Formula Has Changed
There is another important piece of context behind this weekend’s calculations.
World Rugby changed its rankings methodology on July 1, 2026, removing the long-standing home weighting from the calculation.
Under the previous system, the home team was effectively given an additional three rating points when calculating rankings exchanges.
World Rugby introduced that adjustment when the rankings were originally developed to account for the traditional advantage of playing at home.
But the international calendar has changed.
More matches are now being staged at centralised venues, in host countries or even in countries outside those of the competing teams.
World Rugby therefore removed the home weighting beginning July 1.
That means the Japan-Fiji and South Africa-New Zealand permutations are being calculated under the revised system.
A Big Weekend Before the WXV Global Series
The timing also matters.
The new WXV Global Series begins on September 12, launching an eight-week international window involving 18 national teams.
The top level features 12 nations playing a home-and-away, cross-regional touring schedule:
Australia, Canada, England, France, Ireland, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, Scotland, South Africa, USA and Wales.
Fiji will instead compete in the WXV Global Series Challenger in Hong Kong alongside Brazil, Hong Kong China, the Netherlands, Samoa and Spain.
The Challenger begins September 13, when Fiji faces Spain.
That makes this weekend an important final test before both Japan and South Africa enter the main WXV Global Series and Fiji heads to Hong Kong.
The 2026 WXV groups are already set, so this weekend’s rankings movement will not change which competition those teams play in this year.
But rankings will become increasingly important on the road toward Women’s Rugby World Cup 2029.
World Rugby’s qualification system includes places for the two highest-ranked non-qualified teams at the end of the 2027 international window, adding greater long-term significance to every rankings point available over the coming seasons.
Match Officials Confirmed
Australian referee Ella Goldsmith will take charge of Japan against Fiji.
It will be the second time Goldsmith has refereed the two teams in Fukuoka, having overseen Japan’s 29–24 victory over Fiji in September 2023.
In Soweto, Zoe Naude of South Africa will referee New Zealand for the first time.
Naude has already refereed the Springbok Women twice during 2026, including matches during South Africa’s two-test series against the USA in July.
What Can Change This Weekend?
The rankings possibilities create unusually high stakes for two matches immediately before the WXV window.
Canada would move above the Black Ferns into second.
Wales can drop a place without taking the field.
Victory is not enough for Japan to improve its ranking position.
For four teams actually taking the field — and several others watching from elsewhere — the first weekend of September could produce a surprisingly significant reshuffling of the women’s international rugby order.
With the WXV Global Series beginning only days later, the results in Fukuoka and Soweto will also provide an early indication of where several nations stand heading into a busy international window.
